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India worried about Al-Qaida hold on Pak

India worried about Al-Qaida hold on Pak

Author: Indrani Bagchi
Publication: The Times of India
Date: January 31, 2008
URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_worried_about_Al-Qaida_hold_on_Pak/articleshow/2744456.cms

As Pakistan continues to wallow in instability, India's internal assessment about the internal situation in Pakistan is looking more and more grim. Despite all the protestations from Pakistan's leadership, India has concluded that the Al-Qaida is now in virtual control of Pakistan's tribal areas, and Islamabad and the Pakistan army are making little headway.

The proliferation of militants and terrorists is having an exponential increase on India's threat perception from across the border, said high level sources in the government, citing their most recent assessment.

The real fear is that the Pakistan-sponsored terrorist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and those controlled by the Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI, may undertake "maverick missions" which is spook-speak for assassination attempts on high-profile targets.

The recent threats to Jammu & Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, BJP president Rajnath Singh and even the Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, Satyabrata Pal, have been identified with specific intelligence. The government estimates that more such threats to high-profile personalities in India may be on the rise. It was also the reason for the unusually high security measures before Republic day, which has been a traditional hunting day for terrorists.

Waziristan, Swat and adjoining areas, says the government's assessment, are virtually in the hands of the Al-Qaida - which in Indian reckoning, includes the Pakistan Taliban and other allied groups. "The reports are very negative," said sources.

Terrorism analyst B Raman said the Pakistani army is fighting a four-front war against jehadis - "against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in South Waziristan, against the Tehrik and the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in the sensitive Darra Adam Khel-Kohat area of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Shia-dominated Kurram Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas, against the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-Shariat-e-Mohammadi headed by Maulana Fazlullah and the Jaish-e-Mohammad in the Swat Valley of NWFP."

The Pakistan army and Al-Qaida (the loose term encompassing all these groups) are involved in a "hot war", said Ajai Sahni of the Institute for Conflict Management, "where the divisions between the two sides are not very clear". "The very fact that Mullah Omar has supposedly dismissed Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud for working against the Pakistan army shows that there is some degree of collaboration/cooperation/control of these outfits by the ISI."

The ISI, said security sources, continues to maintain its policy of "death by a thousand cuts" against India, and the availability of hardcore militants, terrorists and killers has now increased hugely inside Pakistan. The old policy of deflecting the attention on the internal situation by "heating up" Kashmir could well be activated.

India is gearing up for not only a vicious "spring offensive" in the Pakistan-Afghanistan area, but also inside India, with more terror infiltration from Pakistan. There has also been some concern about reports that the ISI has resurrected Dawood Ibrahim to launch high-profile attacks against Indian personalities.


- indrani.bagchi@timesgroup.com


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