Author: Indrani Bagchi
Publication: The Times of India
Date: January 31, 2008
URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_worried_about_Al-Qaida_hold_on_Pak/articleshow/2744456.cms
As Pakistan continues to wallow in instability,
India's internal assessment about the internal situation in Pakistan is looking
more and more grim. Despite all the protestations from Pakistan's leadership,
India has concluded that the Al-Qaida is now in virtual control of Pakistan's
tribal areas, and Islamabad and the Pakistan army are making little headway.
The proliferation of militants and terrorists
is having an exponential increase on India's threat perception from across the
border, said high level sources in the government, citing their most recent
assessment.
The real fear is that the Pakistan-sponsored
terrorist groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and those controlled
by the Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI, may undertake "maverick missions"
which is spook-speak for assassination attempts on high-profile targets.
The recent threats to Jammu & Kashmir chief
minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, BJP president Rajnath Singh and even the Indian high
commissioner to Pakistan, Satyabrata Pal, have been identified with specific
intelligence. The government estimates that more such threats to high-profile
personalities in India may be on the rise. It was also the reason for the unusually
high security measures before Republic day, which has been a traditional hunting
day for terrorists.
Waziristan, Swat and adjoining areas, says the
government's assessment, are virtually in the hands of the Al-Qaida - which
in Indian reckoning, includes the Pakistan Taliban and other allied groups.
"The reports are very negative," said sources.
Terrorism analyst B Raman said the Pakistani
army is fighting a four-front war against jehadis - "against the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in South Waziristan, against
the Tehrik and the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in the sensitive Darra Adam Khel-Kohat
area of North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Shia-dominated Kurram Agency
of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas, against the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
headed by Maulana Fazlullah and the Jaish-e-Mohammad in the Swat Valley of NWFP."
The Pakistan army and Al-Qaida (the loose term
encompassing all these groups) are involved in a "hot war", said Ajai
Sahni of the Institute for Conflict Management, "where the divisions between
the two sides are not very clear". "The very fact that Mullah Omar
has supposedly dismissed Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud for working against
the Pakistan army shows that there is some degree of collaboration/cooperation/control
of these outfits by the ISI."
The ISI, said security sources, continues to
maintain its policy of "death by a thousand cuts" against India, and
the availability of hardcore militants, terrorists and killers has now increased
hugely inside Pakistan. The old policy of deflecting the attention on the internal
situation by "heating up" Kashmir could well be activated.
India is gearing up for not only a vicious "spring
offensive" in the Pakistan-Afghanistan area, but also inside India, with
more terror infiltration from Pakistan. There has also been some concern about
reports that the ISI has resurrected Dawood Ibrahim to launch high-profile attacks
against Indian personalities.