Author: Walid Phares
Publication: FOX News
Date: December 4, 2008
URL: http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/12/04/wphares_mumbai/
Mumbai's "bloody week" has ended
with shock and awe in India and around the world. Since 9/11, and even before,
the jihadists have been leaping from one massacre to another, scarring democracies
and civil societies with their violent imprints.
From New York and Washington to Madrid and
London; from Beslan and Baghdad to Islamabad and Bali, the seekers of a Taliban-like
"Caliphate" continue to adapt their tactics and while staying the
course. No civilization or continent has escaped their designs.
The seekers of a Taliban-like "Caliphate"
continue to adapt their tactics and while staying the course.
But after Mumbai, one has to expect more and
worse. Let's look at what's on the the horizon:
1) Urban Jihad is Open for Business
My initial assessment of the Mumbai terror
attacks leads me to predict that the Mumbai model is now a frame of reference
for copycats. These attack can unfortunately happen again, in India, in the
region and around the globe. "Urban jihad," the termed I've used
in my last three books and in recent op-ed pieces, is a combination of terror
activities by Salafists or other adherents of Jihadism aimed at shocking,
paralyzing, and seizing part of a city or neighborhood.
The goal of "urban jihad" is to
take the battle inside the cities of the enemy, in this case India. But the
Beslan school massacre in Russia in September 2004, the terror attacks in
Saudi Arabia in November, 2003 the multiple killings in Iraq, Afghanistan
and Algeria, as well as the similar scenarios in Israel over several decades,
tell us that this form of urban terrorism is now open for business. In the
near future I will make more predictions jihadi copycats worldwide.
2) Real Jihadi Claims Beyond Kashmir
Interestingly, the jihadi propaganda machine
reacted instantly to the attacks by invoking the issue of Kashmir. So did
many in the international media. But the reality is -- using the words of
the jihadists -- the goals have mutated and now extend beyond the classical
ethnic conflict in Kashmir. The aim is now to establish a Taliban state covering
half of India, all of Pakistan and also Afghanistan. It is more the Caliphate
then self-determination that the terrorists seek.
3) Trans-Regional Forces Trump Local Forces
As I write, many experts and authorities on
terror have been trying to determine if the Mumbai "perpetrators"
are the Pakistan-based Laskar e Taiba, the Indian Mujahideen, Taliban inspired
factions or simply Al Qaeda. Strategically, we don't need to wonder too much:
all four of these groups are all part of the same web. It's a web that stretches
from Kabul to Mumbai: these are the subcontinent's jihadists. Decisions are
made at a high level with coordination between the big bosses and terrorist
actions are carried out by the designated organizations, teams, and cells.
The rest is left for our media and commentators to guess and juggle. While
it is very useful from an intelligence perspective to determine the chain
of command and the entity directly involved in the Mumbai terror attacks,
from a global perspective it is important for the public and decision makers
from around the world to realize that the three south Asian democracies are
all threatened by the same enemy, appearing in different shapes and showing
multiple faces.
4) Preempting the Forthcoming Offensive in
Afghanistan
Beyond the investigation regarding the Mumbai
attackers and their networks, it is equally important for strategic planners
inside NATO to read the attacks as a preemptive strike against the forthcoming
reinforcement of U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan. It seems to me that
the Mumbai attack, and possibly the other attacks that may follow, are actions
designed to break down precarious relationships between the three democratic
governments in that region and to weaken the efforts promised by President-elect
Obama against Al Qaeda and its regional allies in 2009.
- Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future
Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the
author of "The Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad"
