Author: Omkar Goswami
Publication: Business World.in
Date: October 31, 2009
URL: http://www.businessworld.in/bw/2009_10_30_The_Chindia_Chimera.html
China is not our friend. It is, at best, an
occasional bedfellow that can suddenly leave us in the lurch
It seems to me that there are two-and-a-half
types of people who say that we should always try to accommodate China. The
first are the uncompromising peaceniks. For them, it is their manifest fancy
- and hence, the Almighty's desire - that Asia's two largest nations live
together in never-ending friendship, happiness and peace. This lot doesn't
care much about facts. India and China living peacefully as magnificent allies
of Asia is too compelling an image to be tarnished by facts. The group is
small in number; yet, quite significant in what I call its "English language
fourth estate influence".
The second bunch of Hindi-Chini bhai bhai
fellows are what I call the "Chindia chaps". Typically, these are
Indians who have been to Beijing and Shanghai, and even to places like Chongqing
and Xian, more than once - often as guests of Chinese institutions or international
bodies organising conferences in China. They have attended workshops, written
papers and interacted with Chinese academic counterparts. And they seriously
believe in their portmanteau construct called Chindia - one in which China
and India will together create the largest and most cooperative economic powerhouse
of the world. No Chinese in high government or advisory position that matters
ever speaks of Chindia. Only Indians do. It is as if creating Chindia gives
India the entrée to the high table, as a mythically equal partner of
China.
The remaining half is business. I say half
with a reason. At one level, Indian business would love to operate in China
on a much larger scale - for which it requires our government to be accommodating
with the Middle Kingdom. Equally, it has realised that doing business in China
is tougher and more risky than in India and elsewhere. From an unabashed desire
to invest in China, business now has a more nuanced view. While Indian companies
would prefer better economic and business ties with China, they are not China
champions like the major US corporations. Indeed, many are concerned about
China seeking to make commercial inroads into India.
The pro-China groups in India are barking
up the wrong tree. They don't, and won't, understand that China doesn't give
a fig about India. It has a very simple two-fold view of itself: to be the
most powerful and influential nation in Asia and, with the US, become the
Club of Two that defines global polity. India has no place in this scheme;
and China will never hesitate to put us down if there is the slightest hint
of our questioning this dual mandate.
The Chinese politicians are also quite contemptuous
of India. Since they care nothing about vox populi, they see no merit in our
democracy and elections. Instead, they see great demerit in our inability
to force a more rapid pace of growth. In their eyes, we are a second grade
country with poor roads and highways, poor manufacturing, severe power shortages,
horrible urban infrastructure and significant poverty that is demanding greater
rights in global capitals.
Let's have no doubt about a few things. China
will always support Pakistan, come hail or high water. It will sooner or later
start damming the Tsangpo (which becomes the Brahmaputra in India) and the
Sutlej. My unlettered guess is that the work is about to start, or has just
started - especially across the Sutlej. It will continue to make strident
claims on Arunachal Pradesh. It will significantly strengthen its capabilities
to move troops, artillery and other fire-power along its borders with India
- both across Ladakh, Himachal and Uttaranchal in the west and Arunachal in
the east. It will incessantly complain about the Dalai Lama if he visits border
areas. It will never allow India a hope in hell of a permanent UN Security
Council seat. And block any move that gives India a greater role in today's
league of nations.
China is no friend of India's. It is, at best, an occasional bedfellow that
can suddenly leave you in the lurch. China cares only for China, and if India
helps in furthering China's interests, it can tag along. Otherwise, it will
be cut out. We can't think of allying with China with any degree of permanence.
Unfortunately, we still don't seem to understand that. One day, we will. Hopefully,
before it is too late.
The solution is to be real. To realise that
we need to significantly strengthen our borders; call their bluff with credibility;
focus on rapidly growing the economy; and build strong relationships with
the US, Russia and certain key nations in Asia. And to never shirk from telling
them to back off when they intrude into our affairs. That requires a strong
state with a sophisticated veneer. Can we get there? You decide.
- The author is chairman of CERG Advisory.
