Author: Swapan Dasgupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: August 1, 2010
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/273095/CWG-mess-shows-colossal-ineptitude.html
Among the parlour games intellectuals and
amateur know-alls tend to play during moments of intense boredom is something
called counter-factual history or, better still, Virtual History - the title
of historian Niall Ferguson's delightful forays into the unknown. In plain
language, this involves asking the question 'What if?' and then proceeding
to let the imagination run riot imagining what god's alternative plan could
have been. Bengalis, for example, are prone to endlessly speculating the future
of India had their Netaji emerged unscathed from the burning aircraft in Taipei.
As a cricket fan, my counter-factual favourite is wondering what could have
been Sir Don Bradman's career record had six years of World War II not interrupted
his poetic flow.
On a more serious note, there are economic
historians who have used counter-factual history to drive home some features
of actual history. It has, for example, been suggested that British national
income would have been 10 per cent lower in 1865 had there been no railways.
Likewise, in his seminal work published in 1966, Robert Fogel (who subsequently
won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1993) asked what would have been the
state of the US economy had the railways not been there in the mid-19th century.
He concluded that the GDP would have been adversely affected by no more than
three per cent.
India is not short of competent economists,
some of whom even have an acute sense of history. I would request some of
them to engage in a counter-factual exercise, asking a question that has been
agitating all public-spirited Indians for many decades: What would be the
state of the Indian economy (judged by the necessary statistical parameters)
if all the capital expenditure of the Government since independence been optimally
utilised, or at least touched a 85 per cent rate of effective utilisation?
It is difficult to anticipate the answers
but my casual guess is that India would probably have been in the G-8 club,
instead of being a late entry into the G-20 and that too mainly on account
of sheer size.
This counter-factual poser comes readily to
mind in the context of emerging details of the colossal pilferage and misutilisation
of funds set aside for the Commonwealth Games. The skeletal details that have
emerged so far, courtesy both the media and the vigilance authorities, suggest
two things. First, massive ineptitude in the preparations for the CWG - failure
to meet deadlines, inappropriate construction and a complete insensitivity
to the actual requirements of residents of post-CWG Delhi. Second, scandalous
mismanagement of anything between Rs 30,000 crore and Rs 50,000 crore of money
poured into the vanity show.
According to the Central Vigilance Commission
report which has been imperiously pooh-poohed by the Delhi Chief Minister,
"Almost all the organisations executing works for Commonwealth Games
have considered inadmissible factors to jack-up the reasonable price to justify
award of work at quoted rates citing urgent or emergent circumstances. Despite
higher rates, poor site management and delays and quality compromises have
been observed." According to NDTV, some of the CWG medical equipment
has been invoiced at seven times their market value, a small indication of
the bandit capitalism that has become the norm in Government expenditure.
An interesting feature of the huge CWG 'transmission
losses' is that the bungling is occurring in full public view. When the roof
of a stadium starts leaking at the first hint of rain or, worse, simply collapses,
it doesn't require a CVC to tell people that something is horribly wrong.
Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit may have successfully co-opted local Opposition
leaders, who are uncharacteristically muted in their criticisms, and IOC boss
Suresh Kalmadi may have invoked patriotism to prevent the Games from being
overshadowed by popular disgust, but their damage limitation skills will be
only partially successful. The CWG will forever remain a shining example of
the political class' complete inability to comprehend the obligations that
come with handling public money.
In an ideal world, the impending CWG fiasco
should have nurtured widespread scepticism of the efficiency and effectiveness
of public expenditure. If Government work costs seven times more than what
it does in a competitive environment, without even ensuring a semblance of
quality, there are good reasons to question the high tax and spend approach
that has been the hallmark of Government policy since independence.
It has continuously been demonstrated that
profligate Government expenditure and the exercise of discretionary powers
by the executive are the two principal sources of corruption and wastage of
taxpayers' money. Yet, just as it has become a Pavlovian response for politicians
to demand a CBI inquiry at the faintest whiff of wrongdoing, despite the awareness
that the agency is as flexible about its conclusions as plasticine, the view
that the quantum of Government expenditure decides the commitment to development,
persists. Worse, this self-serving assumption runs through the entire political
spectrum for the simple reason that Government money isn't regulated by normal
rules of capitalist accountability. The UPA wants a country governed by rights
and entitlements. The political class regards the state exchequer as an entitlement.
This is why it's important that some economist,
incensed by the goings-on at the CWG, undertakes to tell India where it would
have been if Government expenditure had been wise, efficient and honest. The
actual cost of six decades of uninterrupted folly may prompt a rethink. It
may even prompt the conclusion that those screaming 'anti-national' at the
sceptics should take a closer look at the mirror.
