Author: Bharat Verma
Publication: Samachar.com
Date: October 19, 2010
URL: http://www.samachar.com/If-Pakistan-splinters-kktx5Nbcjcg.html
The Chinese will suffer a major setback if
dysfunctional Pakistan splinters in the near future.
Many Malaysian Muslims will hasten to tell
you that their country should not be compared with Pakistan. When introducing
themselves, migrant Muslims in West Asia (Middle East) take pains to assert
that they are Muslims from India and not Pakistan.
Serious contradictions within Pakistan have
pushed it into the pit of despair, from where it is almost impossible to climb
out. It is reported that many young Pakistanis out of sheer frustration are
repudiating Islam and converting to other religions.
Perhaps, the majority of Pakistan's dominant
community, the Punjabi Sunni Muslims living in their isolated world of self-destruction,
do not realize the damage they are doing to Islam. Perhaps, they are blind
to the fact that Pakistan appears to be hurtling towards self-destruction.
Beijing treats Pakistan as an extension of
its war machine and a surrogate colony. The likely breakup of Pakistan in
the near future will stall expanding Chinese footprints.
An impaired or divided Pakistan is a cause
of deep worry for Beijing, since Islamabad's capability to tie-down India
by launching terrorist attacks will also suffer.
If Pakistan splinters, there will be enormous
gains for India. Pakistan-occupied Kashmir will return to the Indian fold
and peace will prevail.
This is the singular reason for the Chinese
to move their troops into Gilgit Baltistan, the northern areas of PoK. The
strategy is two-fold.
First, to occupy or gain influence over as
much occupied Indian Territory as possible, in case Pakistan breaks up.
Second, to keep up the pressure on Indian
borders since Pakistan is no position to do the same given its present internal
disarray.
Further, China does not want India to be emboldened
to mount an attack on Pakistan, which is already gasping for oxygen.
With the break-up of Pakistan, ISI activities
like export of fake Indian currency and infiltration of terrorists through
Nepal will cease. Anti-India rabble rousing by ISI inspired elements in Bangladesh
will no longer be possible.
The Union of India's consolidation and integration
as a nation will get a new fillip, as the distraction created by Pakistan
in the name of religion is eliminated.
India then will be able to concentrate on
the principal threat posed by China.
A Fragmented Pakistan will lessen the heavy
financial burden placed on India's economy with drastic reduction in the security
apparatus. This will enable young India to make rapid economic strides that
can outpace ageing China in a short span of time.
Similarly, colossal gains accrue to the West
if Pakistan splinters.
The West, led by America, is losing the plot
in Afghanistan because the problem is the Pakistan Army and its Irregular
Forces led by General Kayani. Washington was forced to admit this worst kept
secret recently, when its supply routes to Afghanistan were snapped by GHQ
Rawalpindi and NATO convoys carrying fuel to Afghanistan were conveniently
torched by the ISI controlled Ghost Army of Jihad with impunity.
American attempts to unhook Pakistan from
China will continue to fail despite dangling the carrot of modern weapons
and technology, as Islamabad's strategic dependency on Beijing is now irreversible.
The 'real estate' of Pakistan was created
so that the West could monitor and manipulate the former Soviet Union, China
and India.
However, if Pakistan falls apart, Sind, which
has very strong democratic yearning, is certain to chart its own independent
path, but in consonance with Indian value system.
Independent Baluchistan with its rich resources
will be definitely against the Chinese, who are exploiting its resources in
conjunction with Islamabad. Denial of Gwadar port will preclude Chinese navy
from the warm waters of Indian Ocean and direct access to West Asia.
Afghanistan will gradually witness unhindered
growth of democracy; the spoilers Pakistan Army and the ISI would have disappeared.
Therefore, democracies will find many friendly places to operate from and
access the resources of Central Asia to the mutual benefit of all players.
The biggest gain for the democracies will
be that China's expanding authoritarian influence will be sharply curtailed.
Also the Jihad fervor being orchestrated in this part of the world by the
Punjabi Sunnis will die a natural death due to fatigue and lack of resources.
The spread of two authoritarian streams, Chinese
communism and the Islamic fundamentalism, in combination or otherwise, threaten
the survival of democracies in Asia.
If Pakistan splinters, one of the threats
will be substantially neutralised.
This in turn will make Central Asia, where
Pakistan aims to attain strategic depth with the help of Islamic fundamentalists,
a safer place
If Pakistan splinters, Xinjiang in China will
face renewed instability, and the Chinese flank in occupied Tibet will come
under severe pressure.
With independent Sind and Baluchistan, the
Chinese supply lines from Gwadar would also get blocked. This will force China
to revert to 'peaceful rise' instead of laying claim on territory or islands
of other nations.
The power of the Shias will increase, thus
creating a balance with some of the Sunni sects that are mainly responsible
for terrorist acts worldwide. Two successive British Prime Ministers have
stated that Pakistan accounts for 75 percent of all such acts.
If Pakistan splinters, this percentage will drop dramatically.
Most remarks on Pakistan are often prefaced
by: "Just like you Indians cannot live with Pakistan..."
This premise is false. An average Indian can
live with Pakistan, as long as Islamabad does not interfere in internal affairs
or connive against India. It is irrelevant whether India talks, trades or
maintains diplomatic relationship with Pakistan; the growth of the Indian
economy or the growing status of India is not even remotely connected with
failure or success of Islamabad.
The 'Pakistan Story' failed because of the
inherent flaws in the values professed and not because of Kashmir.
The 'Indian Story' shows success because of
its belief in secular democratic values.
The truth, therefore, is that 'Pakistan cannot
live with India.' The converse is absolutely preposterous.
If Pakistan splinters, it will hit the biggest
stakeholder and benefactor China.
In order to safeguard its strategic interests,
Beijing will make every endeavour to prevent the breakup of Pakistan, even
to the extent of military intervention in support of the Pakistan Army.
If Pakistan splinters, forces led by US President
Barak Obama will win. On the contrary, if China is successful in its intervention,
authoritarian regimes will hold sway in Asia.
Who wins the great game in Asia, will depend
on the finesse with which the cards are dealt by the contending sides.
Also see: Time to divide Pakistan? | Nervous
China may attack India by 2012'
- Bharat Verma, a former Cavalry Officer is
Editor, Indian Defence Review. He frequently appears on television as a commentator,
and is the author of Fault Lines and The Indian Armed Forces
