Author: Manvendra Singh
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: June 1, 2011
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/342520/Holding-the-heights.html
Talks with Pakistan on resolving the Siachen
dispute will never succeed till India has a political leadership which carries
credibility with the Indian Army.
The eleventh round of talks to resolve the
Siachen dispute between India and Pakistan have just got over in New Delhi.
These are being held after a gap of four years, but that has done nothing
to lessen their importance and neither has it done anything to suggest a breakthrough
is imminent. Pre-meeting briefings carried enough hints that said neither
side expected a change in the status quo. Both were equally prepared for more
of the same, a continuation of the highest conflict humankind has ever seen.
Except that there has been a ceasefire holding since 2003, much like the rest
of the Line of Control.
Which is what the conflict is all about, a
continuation of the Line of Control, from the cessation of hostilities in
1948 till today. The 1949 Karachi Agreement referred to it as the 'Ceasefire
Line'. It became the Line of Control after the 1971 war and the Simla Agreement.
In both cases, though, the language remained the same, and in describing the
passage of the line both agreements remained equally vague. Whilst accurately
delineating up to Point NJ 9842, both the Ceasefire Line and the Line of Control,
continued the language of the first agreement - "thence north to the
glaciers". And that is where the problem emanates from. What was assumed
to be the case in 1949, and even in 1971, can no longer be taken for granted,
for, as they say, a lot of water has flown down the Indus.
India began its Siachen moves on April 16,
1984, under the cover of 'Operation Meghdoot'. That is the official launch
date, but there had been moves in the previous years to get a grip on things
happening on the heights. Numerous mountaineering expeditions from the Pakistani
side through the 1960s and 1970s had got the goat of the military authorities
in India. Even when the 1949 agreement had said "thence north to the
glaciers" the expeditions were clearly coming into areas that were well
east of the north as recorded in the agreement. Which is really the crux of
the Pakistani argument. And in order to get to the root of the problem it
is important to hear the Pakistani argument in toto.
The assumption in Pakistan was that "thence
north to the glaciers" from Point NJ 9842 meant taking the line in a
east-north-east direction to end at the Karakoram Pass and the border with
China. On the basis of this interpretation Pakistani authorities permitted
numerous mountaineering expeditions up to the Siachen glacier. In the process
the United States Defence Mapping Agency began to show a delineated border
by the late-1960s that corresponded roughly with what the Pakistani authorities
were claiming. The increase in the number of mountaineering expeditions continued
well into the 1970s. With each expedition seemingly underlining Pakistan's
claims on the passage of the Line of Control from Point NJ 9842 to the glaciers.
This remained the trend until about the late-1970s
when the Indian Army's High Altitude Warfare School was tasked with finding
out, and laying its own claims. The Indian Army expedition of 1978 placed
its flags at Saltoro Kangri and began the process that was to culminate in
a full-fledged operation in April 1984. This has also resulted in the coinage
of 'oropolitics' as a word to describe this high altitude competition. A stand-off
between the Pakistan Army Special Services Group and a patrol of the Ladakh
Scouts in the summer of 1983 precipitated the movement of troops into the
heights. So it was in the earliest possible days of the mountaineering season
of 1984 that the Indian Army moved into the heights west of Siachen glacier,
where they have remained pretty much since then.
The current positions are atop the Saltoro
Ridge, a part of the Karakoram Range. The actual glacier lies below the ridge
to its east. While the Indian Army holds the heights, the Pakistani Army is
nearby, in some places ridiculously close. The summer of 1987 was the peak
fighting season for control of the Siachen battlefield. The Brigade Commander
from the Pakistani side was none other than General Pervez Musharraf and there
were audacious attempts at undoing Indian military gains. One of them included
SSG troops slung on under helicopters so as to inflict greater surprise.
The gains made in 1987 by soldiers of the
8 Jammu & Kashmir Light Infantry became legendry in Siachen military lore.
Though there have been attempts to change the ownership and control of the
ridgeline after 1987, notably in 1990, 1995-96 and lastly in 1999, none of
them succeeded. And status quo remains pretty much what it has been since
1987.
So what next? Do the two armies continue to
occupy the coldest battlefield in the world, or is a settlement possible?
The 11 rounds of talks suggest that a settlement is not appearing in the near
term. For the sticking point is to decide the current locations of troops.
The Indian Army doesn't like politicians and bureaucrats, much like all armies
in the world. And so it fears that agreeing to vacate the heights for political
brownie points could cost it dearly because one day the political leadership
will tell it to regain the heights.
Since you can't trust the Pakistani Army to
keep to an agreement, you can't take a chance and do as the politicians tell
you. This is the Army's thinking in India. The fears are driven by the moves
to open trade through the high passes and if people can think of linking Gwadar
Port with a rail line through the Karakoram Range, there is every possibility
of the heights being lost without a shot fired. So the Army thinks. And that
is why it sticks to its point of verifying the current positions, the Actual
Ground Position Line, through physical and technical measures.
This is something the Pakistani Army refuses
to agree upon. By acknowledging the existence of an AGPL, the Pakistani Army
concedes it holds lesser territory than it has been claiming domestically.
It has come up with a proposal that suggests an acknowledgment of the AGPL
but through oblique ways. Upon agreeing to withdraw, the Pakistani Army will
accept that it withdrew from the current positions, and that the Indian Army
withdrew from its current positions, and hence, the AGPL will be acknowledged.
It is a clever proposal, but it needs a political
class that carries credibility with the military to pull it off. The state
of governance being the mess it is, no official, civil or military, will stick
his neck out to salvage an agreement that may not be adhered to in the first
place.
-- The visual accompanying this article shows
three Indian soldiers on duty at Siachen, the world's highest and coldest
battleground, climbing a steep and frozen rock face near the glacier.
