Author: Shashi Shekhar
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: November 5, 2012
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/item/52770-neo-aspirationals-will-sway-outcome.html

In Gujarat, the battle of the ballot could see a forceful intervention of the class of enterprising people who don’t believe in official doles as a means to progress

In many ways, the battle for 2014 could end up becoming an electoral game of numbers on who matters more — the UPA's aam aadmi that cares only for the safety net of entitlements or the ‘neo aspirational’ class that is impatient to climb the ladder of opportunity while enjoying the comfort of the safety net.

To best appreciate these questions, consider the following data points from the Niti Digital Gujarat survey: 75 per cent of the voters surveyed were below the age of 40; only 13 per cent of those surveyed belonged to the highest socio-economic category in urban areas and only nine per cent in the rural areas; Yet the Congress commands only a 13 per cent commitment from the bottom-most socio-economic category in urban pockets and a 15 per cent commitment in rural pockets.

So who are these voters who, despite being profiled under the lower to mid socio-economic categories, have strong commitment towards the BJP and are mostly young?

The survey data on how the voters consume mass media is most interesting when one looks at it across the socio economic categories. An overwhelming majority (2/3rds or more) across the lower to mid socio-economic categories get their primary information from television and newspapers. Only exception to this being the bottom rung in the rural areas with an overwhelming majority has no access to any kind of media. Seventy per cent of all voters surveyed owned a television while nearly half of them owned agricultural land. Ninety seven per cent had access to electricity.

The regional cluster of Amreli, Bhavnagar, Junagadh and Porbandar offers a good glimpse of the ‘neo-aspirational’ class. While majority of those surveyed were in the mid to low socio economic categories, a significant concentration was in the mid category (nearly 55 per cent). When one looks at the top concerns for this regional cluster the ‘neo-aspirational’ dynamic becomes clear. Inflation tops the list but at second place is infrastructure and at third place are job opportunities. The Jamnagar, Rajkot and Surendranagar cluster that shares similar characteristics had job opportunities ranking at a close fourth place. Surprisingly in the Dahod, Panchmahal and Sabarkantha cluster where there was a significant concentration of lowest rung of rural socio economic categories the concern over job opportunities came in second place.

It is this ‘neo-aspirational’ class's hunger for job opportunities and infrastructure that is shaping a different kind of electoral discourse where development and economic growth are viewed as essential to the ladder of opportunity while concerns over inflation manifest into the desire for a subsidy-oriented safety net. This is markedly different from the UPA's aam aadmi rhetoric which is all about imaginary rights and entitlements from National Rural Employment Guarantee Act to Food Security with the lure of cash transfers.

The key difference is that the neo-aspirational class is far more impatient to climb the ladder of opportunity rather than militate like the UPA's aam aadmi for a safety net woven out of rights and entitlements. The anger against UPA's corruption is also reflection of this impatience.

This neo-aspirational class that has become the mainstay for the BJP in Narendra Modi's Gujarat. Just as the UPA attempted to carve out a universal constituency with the aam aadmi label with its rights-based entitlement agenda, what we are witnessing here is a counter constituency carved out by Mr Modi with a development plus entitlements agenda.