Author:
Publication: Uninterestedboring
Date: May 3, 2012
URL:      https://uninterestingboring.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/how-business-standard-and-bbc-had-to-retract-a-story-on-gujarat/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

It all started with
...............................................................................................
Amit Paranjape @aparanjape
 Do read RT @pragmatic_d What does the SGDP growth rate data of states since 2004-05 tell us? Evidently, nothing. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/a-k-bhattacharya-indias-breakout-states/473113/ …
9:05 AM - May 2, 2012
...............................................................................................

and then
...............................................................................................
Vivek Sengupta @vsengupta
 BS Editor AKB punctures Gujarat's growth claims in his column.6% growth for 7 yrs.Whereas Mah, TN & Haryana hav had double digit growth
8:36 AM - May 2, 2012
...............................................................................................

The original article in Business Standard by AK Bhattacharya.

...............................................................................................
Title: A K Bhattacharya: India's breakout states?
Author: A K Bhattacharya
Publication: Business Standard
Date: May 02, 2012,

India’s average annual economic growth during the seven-year period since the United Progressive Alliance, or UPA,formed its government at the Centre in 2004-05 is estimated at 8.5 per cent. The growth figure for the eight-year periodunder the UPA will be a bit lower after incorporating India’s 2011-12 performance, which is expected to be 6.9 per cent. That should be a cause for concern because with the growth prospects for the current year looking not too bright, analysts haveevery reason to wonder if the UPA’s good run with economic growth will fizzle out in the remaining two years of its secondfive-year tenure.

That is one perspective. The other way of looking at the India growth story under the UPA regime would be to assess howthe various states in India performed in this period and whether any one of them has the ability to continue with its good runin the coming years. An assessment of how different states performed in the seven-year period – from 2004-05 to 2010-11 – brings out interesting nuggets of information that seem to challenge the conventional wisdom on which states are growingfast and which are laggard.

For instance, which are the states that clocked double-digit growth in gross statedomestic product during the seven-year period from 2004-05? Only five statesmake that list. On top is Uttarakhand at 13.2 per cent, followed, as expected, byBihar at 10.9 per cent, Maharashtra at 10.7 per cent, Tamil Nadu at 10.4 per centand Haryana at 10.1 per cent. The real story here is not about Uttarakhand andBihar with their relatively low bases (they grew by 4.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent,respectively, in the previous ten years), but Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu andHaryana.

Many analysts had virtually written off Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, and hadbegun extolling the virtues of fast-growing Gujarat and Karnataka. It would beinteresting to compare these states on growth parameters. Maharashtra’sperformance is significant. From an average annual growth of five per cent in theten-year period from 1994-95, Maharashtra doubled its performance to 10.7 percent in the seven years under the UPA regime. Tamil Nadu’s achievement isequally remarkable, with almost the same base performance in the 10 years priorto 2004-05 almost doubling to 10.4 per cent in the seven years of the UPA.

Haryana’s growth story is perhaps the most remarkable. In the ten-year periodfrom 1994-95, it grew annually by over 6.5 per cent. So there was no low-baseeffect for Haryana to bank on for its 10.1 per cent annual average growth in theseven years from 2004-05. Its growth may be skewed and services sector-led(including construction), but Haryana will clearly emerge as the star performeramong all the fast-growing states in India in the last few years.

There is a political angle to the states’ growth pattern as well. Of the five stateswith double-digit growth, three are ruled by the Congress. The remaining two – Bihar and Tamil Nadu – are ruled by regional parties — the Janata Dal (United),which is part of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, andthe All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of J Jayalalithaa.

The performance of Gujarat in this period is a puzzle. In the ten-year period ended2002-03, its average annual growth was relatively low at 3.6 per cent. In spite ofthat, however, it could grow by 6.3 per cent annually in the seven years from 2004-05 to 2010-11. Karnataka had a high base of over six per cent average annual growth in the 1994-2003 period, but it couldraise the growth level to 8.7 per cent in the seven years from 2004-05. Haryana’s performance stands out even more when

A K Bhattacharya: India's breakout states?
 
compared to that of Karnataka. Leaving Karnataka behind, it clocked double-digit growth in spite of having a high basegrowth of over six per cent in the previous ten-year period.

Odisha, too, has done well in this period, although it had the advantage of a low base of less than four per cent averageannual growth in the ten-year period ended 2003-04. But to have clocked 9.5 per cent growth in the following seven years istestimony to Odisha’s inherent economic potential and ability to grow fast.

No clear conclusions can be drawn from these data. What does emerge is that states with stable governments have a betterchance to grow fast. Bihar, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Uttarakhand will fall in that category. Maharashtra may be anexception, as the state has seen changes in leadership and yet it has recorded double-digit growth in the last seven years.But then, how does one explain Gujarat? It has seen the most stable of governments for the last several years. And yet, ithas seen its growth hovering at around six per cent for the last seven years. Or is there something more that helps in theemergence of what analysts would like to describe as the breakout states of India?
..................................................................................................

Then i had tweeted a bunch in the morning and left it at that and forgot about the same.
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/a-k-bhattacharya-indias-breakout-states/473113/ … - Basic Arithmetic & Economics gone for a toss and he writes for business standard
9:43 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 So Mr. Bhattacharya writes that Guj had 6.3% growth Annually from 2004 - 2005 to 2010-2011 in 7 years 1/n
9:44 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 2/n - 2004-05 -GSDP at current prices - 203373 Crores - 2010-2011 - 513173 Cr - Avg Growth 21.76%
9:47 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 3/n - 2004-05 - GSDP at constant prices - 203373 Crores - 2010-2011 - 365295 Cr - Avg growth rate - 11.37%
9:48 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 4/n - 2004-05 - NSDP at current prices - 172265 Crores - 2010-2011 - 440942 Cr - Avg growth rate - 22.28%
9:50 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 5/n - 2004-05 - NSDP at current prices - 172265 Crores - 2010-2011 - 309409 Cr - Avg growth rate - 11.37%
9:53 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 6/n - soeconomists, mathematicians and experts, can you please look at numbers and say how was it 6.3% growth for 7 years in guj
9:54 AM - May 2, 2012
..................................................................................................

Then Soutik From BBC Came up with this Gem and a link to his BBC Article with a Headline – Is Gujarat Red Hot Economy a Myth? quoting the same Business Standard article.

.................................................................................................
Soutik Biswas @soutikBBC
 Is Gujarat's red hot economy a myth? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-17919364 … #India #Gujarat
4:07 PM - May 2, 2012
.................................................................................................

The Original BBC Article is Below.

.................................................................................................
Title: Is Gujarat's red hot economy a myth?
Author:
Publication: scribd.com
Date: May 2, 2012
URL:      https://www.scribd.com/document/92187987/BBC-News-Is-Gujarat-s-Red-Hot-Economy-a-Myth

Is Gujarat's so-called red-hot economic growth a mythpeddled by the government of the controversial chiefminister Narendra Modi?

Mr Modi, who was blamed for not doing enough to stop thehorrific 2002 anti-Muslim riots in the state after the burningof a train carrying Hindu pilgrims, has modelled himself as ano-nonsense economic reformer leading one of India's fastest-growing states.

In March, a senior minister of his cabinet told me thatGujarat has been recording scorching double-digit growth,prompting even The Economist magazine to call it India'sGuangdong. "Modi Means Business" said Time magazinewhen it put him on the cover recently.

But a raft of recent articles in the Indian media suggest thatthat Mr Modi's claims may be overblown.

Examining data on the economic performance of Indianstates during a seven-year-period - 2004-11 - AK Bhattacharya, editor ofBusiness Standard, is puzzled by Gujarat's performance. 

He finds that its economy grew by 6.3% annually during this period, upfrom average growth every year of 3.6% - a relatively low base - in a 10-year period ending 2003.

'Breakout' state?

More interestingly, states like Uttarkhand (13.2%), Bihar (10.9%),Maharashtra (10.7%), Tamil Nadu (10.4%) and Haryana (10.1%)recorded double-digit growth in the seven-year period under review.

None of these states have the kind of hype associated with them as doesMr Modi's Gujarat, which is often called the most business friendly statein India.

Of the five states with double-digit growth, Mr Bhattacharya notes, threeare ruled by the Congress party, which has come under fire in the capitalfor going slow on economic reforms!

So is Gujarat really the "breakout" state that Mr Modi wants the world tobelieve?"

It has seen the most stable of governments for the last several years,"Mr Bhattacharya writes. "And yet, it has seen its growth hovering around6% for the last seven years." Is there something amiss?

Analyst Salil Tripathi has written about how "of all the hype surrounding Mr Modi , the oddest are some of the claims concerning the state'seconomic performance". Gujarat, he says, "has done well in recent years,but it lost ground soon after the riots, picking up pace only later".

Mr Tripathi writes about how states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu andUttar Pradesh have bigger economies, and Gujarat actually spends morethan it has earned, thus depleting its surpluses.

Gujarat also signed on to a fiscal responsibility law only after five otherstates did, and 20 states preceded Gujarat in implementing value addedtax.

I have written in the past on how Gujarat fares the worst  among Indianstates in terms of overall hunger and malnutrition - 45% of children thereare malnourished, according to the latest Indian Human Development report.

The state also has a poor record in checking infant and maternalmortality. And as journalist Hartosh Singh Bal pointed out recently,Gujarat's ranking among states in terms of literacy (18th) had actuallyslipped one place, the year Mr Modi took over.

"These figures belie Mr Modi's reputation as an efficientadministrator " he wrote. "But you wouldn't know it reading the foreignmedia.

"So is Mr Modi a spinmeister or is there something everybody is missing?
.................................................................................................

As usual again the crowd went delierious now with even BBC quoting it.

That is when i said enough and put out a challenge of a lakh of rupees for anyone to prove the BS & BBC Numbers or retract and modify.
.................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 I am ready to put in a lakh of rupees to anyone who can prove that Gujarat has grown by 6.3% in last 7 years as mentioned in BS
7:58 PM - May 2, 2012
.................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 Any one ready for that challenge? Else a public apology by everyone who carried that BS article including Rediff, BBC and others is in order
8:00 PM - May 2, 2012
.................................................................................................
Vijay @centerofright
 Last but not the least - Accept your intellectual dishonesty of not doing your fricking homework and you call urself esteemed
8:01 PM - May 2, 2012
.................................................................................................

After the above then the first retraction and corrected article in Business Standard comes up.

.................................................................................................
Title: A K Bhattacharya: India's breakout states?
Author: A K Bhattacharya
Publication: Scribd.com
Date: May 2, 2012
URL:      www.scribd.com/document/92187884/A-K-Bhattacharya-India-s-Breakout-States-Updated

India’s average annual economic growth during the seven-year period since the United ProgressiveAlliance formed its government at the Centre in 2004-05 is estimated at 8.5 per cent. The growth figurefor the eight-year period under UPA will be a bit lower after incorporating the 2011-12 performance,which is expected to be 6.9 per cent. That should be a cause for concern because with the growthprospects for the current year looking not too bright, analysts have every reason to wonder if the UPA’sgood run with economic growth will fizzle out in the remaining two years of its second five-year tenure.

That is one perspective. The other way of looking at the India growth story under the UPA regimewould be to assess how the various states in India performed in this period and whether any one of them has the ability tocontinue with its good run in the coming years. An assessment of how different states performed in the seven-year period – from 2004-05 to 2010-11 – brings out interesting nuggets of information that seem to challenge the conventional wisdom onwhich states are growing fast and which are laggard.

For instance, which are the states that clocked double-digit growth in its grossstate domestic product during the seven-year period from 2004-05? Only sixstates will make that list. On top of that list is Uttarakhand at 13.2 per cent,followed, as expected, by Bihar at 10.9 per cent, Maharashtra at 10.7 per cent,Tamil Nadu at 10.4 per cent, Haryana at 10.1 per cent and Gujarat at 10.08 percent. The real story here is not about Uttarakhand and Bihar with their relativelylow bases (they grew by 4.6 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively in the previousten years), but Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana.

Many analysts had virtually written off Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu and beganextolling the virtues of fast-growing Gujarat and Karnataka. It would be interestingto compare these states on growth parameters. Maharashtra’s performance issignificant. From average annual growth of five per cent in the ten-year period from1994-95, Maharashtra doubled its performance to 10.7 per cent in the seven yearsunder the UPA regime. Tamil Nadu’s is equally remarkable with almost the samebase performance in ten years prior to 2004-05, which almost doubled to 10.4 percent in the seven years of UPA.

Haryana’s growth story is perhaps the most remarkable. In the ten-year periodfrom 1994-95, it grew annually by over 6.5 per cent. So there was no low-baseeffect for Harayana to bank on for its 10.1 per cent annual average growth in theseven years from 2004-05. Its growth may be skewed and services sector-led(including construction), but Haryana will clearly emerge as the star performeramong all the fast-growing states in India in the last few years. Gujarat’s story iswell-known and shows what sustained growth-oriented policies can do to a state’seconomic fortunes.

There is a political angle to the states’ growth pattern as well. Of the six states withdouble-digit growth, three are ruled by the Congress. The remaining three – Bihar,Tamil Nadu and Gujarat– are ruled by Janata Dal (United) that is part of theBharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, All India Anna DravidaMunnetra Kazhagam of J. Jayalalithaa and BJP.

The performance of Karnataka is certainly below its potential. Karnataka had a high base of over six per cent averageannual growth in the 1994-2003 period, but it could raise the growth level to 8.7 per cent in the seven years from 2004-05.

Harayana’s performance stands out even more when compared to that of Karnataka. Leaving Karnataka behind, it clockeddouble-digit growth in spite of having a high base growth of over six per cent in the previous ten-year period.

Odisha, too, has done well in this period, although it had the advantage of a low base of less than four per cent averageannual growth in the ten-year period ended 2003-04. But to have clocked 9.5 per cent growth in the following seven years istestimony to Odisha’s inherent economic potential and ability to grow fast.

No clear conclusions can be drawn from these data. What does emerge is that states with stable governments have a betterchance to grow fast. Bihar, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Gujarat and Uttarakhand will fall in that category. Maharashtramay be an exception as the state has seen changes in leadership and yet it has recorded double-digit growth in the lastseven years. But is political stability the only factor that has led to sustained growth for these states? Or is there somethingmore that helps in the emergence of what analysts would like to describe as the breakout states of India?

This column has been modified to incorporate corrected data
.......................................................................................................

Followed by the BBC with a change in Head line – Gujarat IS a Red Hot Economy – Article below.

.......................................................................................................
Title: Gujarat IS a red hot economy
Author:
Publication: Scribd.com
Date: May 2, 2012
URL:      https://www.scribd.com/document/92188116/BBC-News-Gujarat-is-a-Red-Hot-Economy-Changed

This morning, a piece in Business Standard, one ofIndia's most respected newspapers, caught my eye.

Examining data on the economic performance of Indianstates during a seven-year-period (2004-11), AKBhattacharya, editor of the newspaper, wrote that he waspuzzled by the data on Gujarat.

Gujarat is ruled by Narendra Modi, one of India's mostcontroversial politicians, who has modelled himself as a no-nonsense economic reformer of one of India's fastest-growing states.

In March, a senior minister of his cabinet told me thatGujarat has been recording scorching double-digit growth,prompting even The Economist magazine to call it India'sGuangdong."Modi Means Business" said Time magazinewhen it put him on the cover recently.

Mr Bhattacharyya, however, wrote in Wednesday morning'sedition of his paper that Gujarat's economy grew by 6.3% annually duringthis period, up from average growth every year of 3.6% - a relatively lowbase - in a 10-year period ending in 2003.

"It has seen the most stable of governments for the last several years,"Mr Bhattacharya wrote. "And yet, it has seen its growth hovering around6% for the last seven years.

"I wrote a blog post with a link to the piece wondering whether Gujarat'sred-hot economic growth was an invention of the foreign media which hasbeen written extensively about Mr Modi's reformist government.

I had also wondered whether there was something amiss with the data on Gujarat in the Business Standard article.

Indeed there was - and I have updated the blog post to reflect this

Since I wrote my earlier version, Mr Bhattacharya has carried out somecrucial corrections in his Business Standard article -the modifiedversion appeared on the newspaper's website later in the day .

He has written that Gujarat actually clocked a growth rate of 10.08%annually during a seven-year period beginning 2004-05. That is obviouslyfar better than the 6.3% growth that he mentioned in the earlier version.

He has also taken out a paragraph in which he wrote: "It (Gujarat) hasseen the most stable of governments for the last several years. And yet, ithas seen its growth hovering around 6% for the last seven years.

"Double-digit growth, of course, puts Gujarat in the league of the highgrowth states in India. The doubts that I had about it after reading MrBhattacharya's piece have now been clarified by the writer himself.

He writes in the modified piece:

"… which are the states that clocked double-digit growth in its gross statedomestic product during the seven-year period from 2004-05? Only sixstates will make that list. On top of that list is Uttarakhand at 13.2%,followed, as expected, by Bihar at 10.9%, Maharashtra at 10.7%, TamilNadu at 10.4%, Haryana at 10.1% and Gujarat at 10.08%.

"In the amended version Mr Bhattacharya also adds that "Gujarat's storyis well-known and shows what sustained growth-oriented policies can doto a state's economic fortunes".

There is a vigorous debate on whether such high growth is deliveringadequate social development in Gujarat. It is a point which many believeis valid is for the whole of India. But Gujarat, going by the data, is indeeda red-hot economy.
.......................................................................................................

All i say is, you may have liking or hatred towards Narendra Modi. Try the electoral route to defeat him or try proving that the numbers he quote are wrong with facts and please don’t peddle falsehoods as facts.

Also remember that every state’s growth is a growth for India as a whole. I donot know how folks can forget this simple fact. The reason the negative campaign was to be countered as remembered that a lie repeated N number of times becomes the truth.