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Publication: Threadreaderapp.com
Date: November 30, 2022
URL:      https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1597993483515887616.html?s=03

Crouching Tiger, Hiding Dragon (Thread on Indian Economy)

While world is under fear of recession, inflation, stock market going down, less demand, energy crisis

2022-23 is becoming turning point for Indian economy.
India all set to become economic superpower

How ?
Lets check

- GDP grew in Q2 at 6.3% and 9.8% in H1 that is highest in world among all major countries

Agenda makers will say, GDP grew 13.5% in Q1 n 8.5% in Q2 of last FY.

Here note that GDP growth rate is compared to previous year. There was lockdown in PY Q1 n Lock down opened in Q2

So economy grew rapidly in Q2 of PY (Previous year)

6.3% in Q2 of this year proved that our growth is sustainable n when we compare it with to other countries, its get confirmed.

Lets check other financial data also

- Gross GST revenue collected in October is Rs 1.51 lakh-crore, 2nd highest so far.

- For 9th consecutive month the GST revenues have breached the ₹1.4 lakh-crore mark signalling buoyant consumer spending

- Car sales in September : 350,000 highest ever for any month.
- Oct was festival month, data will go more high, in this also SUV segment is highest

-Industrial output 7% YoY growth in the H1 FY23

- IIP rose to 3.1% in September, beating expectations

These were output figures not lets talk abt Credit figures that is another indicator
- MSME credit has registered 30% growth for 6 months in a row

- Trade and NBFC credit registered 21.3 & 30.6 %
growth

- personal loans such as housing registered over 16 % growth over the last 4 months.

As per Crisil report, corporate credit (45 percent of overall credit) may grow at a 2-year CAGR of 10-12% up to March 2024

- Crisil estimates that ‘Annual capital spending for India's 15,000 largest industrial companies will be Rs 4.5 tn ($55 billion) in FY23

- Rs 5 tn ($62 billion) in FY24

- The private sector capital expenditure will see a robust revival coz govt is spending $80 billion on infra development

- n last but not least, Indian stock market has become rocket n all time high while all global markets r negative in this FY

All data I shared is taken for open source n anyone can verify.

When we consolidate all these data and compare it to other economies one thing is confirm that team of Modi n NSR is all set to make India the most sustainable n powerful economy.

On other side China is facing high debt, falling industrial output, less working manpower.

In 2004 India was 11th largest economy of world
In 2014 India was at 10th

Real success story story started after 2014
In 2022 we are at 5th
and by 2027 we will be at 3rd

How we did it ?

There is not one single reason, It was set of lot of consolidated initiatives taken by Modi govt. Let me explain few of

- Reforms in banking sector, cleaning up Banks
- Govt PLI scheme with Make in India one of the most imp reason. Today its 25% of Corporate
Capital spending
- Support to domestic industries
- Our foreign policy n geopolitical calibration with strong leadership
- Spending on infrastructure development, electricity generation
- Most important Modi govts social empowerment schemes. Like affordable homes, tape water
electricity, gas cylinder, mudra

People used to think these schemes for votes but they were for different reason n that was to build demand driven economy by strengthening bottom of pyramid.

Bootom is always bigger so its more robust to face shock and exactly same happened
during corona

Our strong lower class empowered with digital schemes saved Indian economy while other countries that were based on big corporates stumbled

IMF correctly said - This is not decade of India, This is century of India.

End of Thread